10th September 2008, 03:29 PM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.
I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.
If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.
If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.
For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.
Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.
Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded.
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Nothing wrong with disagreeing or presenting a different point of view Chrome. My point of view was [obviously] not based on stats. but a part of my approach to form study regarding 'horse fitness' that was relevant to this thread and works for me. I don't feel 'corrected' at all, so no need to apologize.
You can run data about variables 100's of different ways that will [on paper] come with winning percentages. Winning stats. based on past SP favorites don't work in the real world because it's just not possible to always pick and back the SP favorite correctly.
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