View Single Post
  #19  
Old 30th October 2003, 09:48 AM
becareful becareful is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
Default

Cameron,

In that losing streak simulator the first column is the length of losing streak (so 0 means you won on the first bet, 1=won with the 2nd bet, etc). Second column is the number if times it happened during the simulation and the last column is the number of times you EXPECT that losing streak to happen mathematically. I wouldn't worry too much about this last column as it can be a bit confusing if you are not used to probability analysis.

Plugging in a 9% strike rate and running a simulation I got these values for the large losing streaks:
26=1
27=2
30=2
31=1
33=2
29=1
46=1

Now if you decide that you are going to cut your losses at 30 then in this simulation you would have had to do this 7 times (2+1+2+1+1) as there were 7 streaks of 30 OR MORE. So if you projected profit for the 1000 bets is $8000 LESS $1500 for each losing streak you would have lost $2500 overall as the 7 losing streaks cost you $10500.

Hope this helps to clarify it.
__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson
Reply With Quote