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Originally Posted by Skytrain WEEKEND HUSSLER, winner of 12 from 15 at an exceptional 80% strike rate that includes seven G1 wins from eight attempts....amazing no matter how you look at it, right? This horse appears to have it all. An ability to take a position where it suits and then relax until jockey Brad Rawiller asks the horse to let down and KABOOM, watch him explode!.............. ........The answer depends on what type of racehorse one wants. Cont.....

Before you go on, please excuse spelling, missed words of paragraphs or anything that appears gibberish as I have had a VERY EARLY morning and I'm all horsed out. I actually forgot to finish this except I saw a comment in my mail, so here it goes..............

(Deleted - shouting. Moderator.)

Starting from barrier 13 this Saturday at his first trip over 2000m will be his first big test. Flemington's long straight will give the field plenty of time to run him down, especially with the set weight and penalties working against him. The majority of the field are stayers aiming at the Cups and they'll be getting close to peak fitness. I have no doubt that should he fail (without reasonable excuse) on Saturday then he is no hope in the Caulfield Cup. Here's why....

Firstly I believe that the horses he'll meet in the Caulfield Cup have yet to show their best. Horses like Zagreb, Maldivian, Tuesday Joy, Nom Du Jeu, Red Ruler and Zipping have been running well over unsuitable distances and won't have any problems at the 12f. Futhermore, with the weights to be increased it will favour those genuine stayers and that isn't taking into consideration the chance of a wet track that would really see them slog it out.

While Weekend Hussler's breeding suggest he should run 2400m comfortably, I believe that won't be the case. The gelding's greatest asset is his turn of foot and I can see it being greatly diminished once he gets above 2000m. While Weekend Hussler does relax well in his races we've only seen him step above 1600m once (1800m at Caulfield) and that was at WFA. Running the 2400m of the hectic Caulfield Cup will be a completely different ball game with Weekend Hussler having to give a horse like Zagreb 5kgs !!!

I'm also concerned that connections haven't set the horse for one specific race, expecting him to back up seven days later over 10f. While it has been done before you'll find that those successful in their venture have usually been around the block previously (eg: Northerly had won the Cox Plate the year before taking out the Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double.)

It's a major concern that Weekend Hussler has become accustomed to racing over the sprinter/miler trip which will work against him both physically and mentally as the race distance increase. Until last start all but one of his races were between 1200m - 1600m yet he'll be going up greatly in distance after this weeks Turnbull. It's extremely rare for a horse to race in the Caulfield Cup without having raced at 2000m + in a previous preparation and surely the Caulfield Cup is not the race to test a 4yr old's staying ability.

Remember, the opposition in this years Caulfield Cup has a great combination of class and potential. Maldivian, Tuesday Joy and Zipping (should he run) are more than capable of winning the race although it's the 4yr olds that I've targetted in the early markets. Littorio, Guillotine, Zarita and Zagreb will all be meeting Weekend Hussler this Saturday and I suggest that a close eye is kept on all.

When it's all said and done I simply see Weekend Hussler as a miler who may be able to get over 2000m on raw ability, but not against the best stayers in Australasia giving them weight....and I haven't even touched on the imports.

The Cox Plate is a completely different scenerio. The problems I see Weekend Hussler confronting are not so problematic one out but combined they are disastrous.

First we take a look at the track itself...insanity !!! For a horse like W.Husler the strathayr surface is a nightmare as it nullifies his greatest asset...a blistering turn of foot. The strathayr surface has plenty of give and the simple fact is that horses hit top speed quicker on a firm surface . What's worse for those exploding types is that they'll perform at their best when balanced up which can be difficult when letting down on the cambered turn that Moonee Valley provides.

The Cox Plate itself is usually run at high speed and come the 800m mark they start powering along. This compounds the problem for horses that like to be held back a little for one powerful burst as they find themselves way out of their ground rounding the final turn. Because of the fast tempo it's almost impossible to win the Cox Plate unless you're close to the lead on entering the straight which simply means that a horse must be able to sustain a long run at high speed. Acceleration is not a neccesity except for the rare occassion where there's no speed. Last year's renewal saw El Segundo race handier than usual, sprinting away to win a race devoid of front runners although that won't be the case this year if Maldivian and Devil Moon take their place.

The effect of the strathayr surface on certain types of thoroughbreds can't be underestimated. Horses like Tie The Knot, Lonhro and Shogun Lodge could run lightning fast sectionals yet failed in the Cox Plate, due in part to their inability to go early and sustain a run which caught them out. Since the reconstruction of the Moonee Valley track we've seen the race won by Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Northerly, Fields Of Omagh, Sunline, Makybe Diva...all horses that could go early and work their way to within striking distance of the leaders (or lead themselves) but more importantly sustain that run from the 800m all the way home. Again, acceleration is not vital, in fact Northerly was often caught a little flat footed yet he won all three starts at the Valley.

I do not believe that Weekend Hussler fits into the latter group, if anything his ability to relax then explode is very much in the same mould of Lonhro, a champion racehorse who was lengths below his best on the strathayr track.

Like Lonhro, Weekend Hussler will never have raced on the track prior to the Cox Plate. This can be taken any way one likes yet I believe it's a mistake. In my opinion it makes sense to observe how a horse handles the track so any adjustments can be made or so the jockey can re-evaluate his race plan (eg: horse changes leg on straightening, drifts onto fence as Northerly used to or struggles to pick up speed...which would force them to ride the horse closer to the lead.) And so on and so on...I can remember the connections of Grandera saying how they would love to run the race over again due to the track's "unusual complexities". Or something like that.

What can't be overlooked is the fact that this horse has just turned 4yrs and coming into the Cox Plate will be having his 7th start for the preparation. Considering that he had never gone futher than 1600m in past preps there has to be concerns on him going over the top or burning out. Unlike other runners set solely for the race, their first few runs nothing more than barrier trials, Weekend Hussler has been racing hard ever since his first up loss. Forget the fact that he displays an appearance of a horse with plenty of condition, the trick is to keep him fresh enough so he can produce his brilliance while getting him fit enough to run out the staying trips.

The problem as I see it is training the horse to stay the 12f of the Caulfield Cup without affecting his speed required for the Cox Plate. Fred Kersley wouldn't have had the same problem as the qualities that saw Northerly win the Caulfield Cup made him the perfect type for the Cox Plate...just bowl along on pace at a high crusing speed. More importantly, coming into the 2002 Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double, Northerly was a tough 6yr old veteran with six group 1 wins to his name, three of those at 2000m.

The one advantage Weekend Hussler does have with the Cox Plate is it's a smaller select field at WFA. The wild cards often come in the shape of the 3yr olds who need to have a combination of class and toughness to defeat the older seasoned superstars. More often than not it's a case of last 3yr old standing.

If Weekend Hussler was being set for the Cox Plate alone, passing the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, I would rate him as the horse to beat BUT the Caulfield Cup is a tough race for the best of them and I can't help but feel that when they roll into the Moonee Valley straight seven days later, Weekend Hussler will have had enough.

Because I doubt that Weekend Hussler will be anywhere but the spelling paddock come Melbourne Cup day I'll quickly say that Efficient is the horse to beat. Zabeels are like fine wine and the rise in weight should be offset by his overall improvement. Again the lightly weighted 4yr olds that scrape into the race will make it interesting as will the imports yet I like the fact that the Melbourne Cup has again been Efficient's only focus.