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3rd October 2008, 11:08 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,007
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One thing that most people miss that Betfair causes quite a large demage to profit even with the normal commision. The commision payed on every win has a snowball effect. The normal punter might take 20 wins to increase his bank by 10% those wins are charged a commision, however a loss isnt aforded a refund so the next win that actually only places you at the same level that you were before, has cost you 2 commisions, so you could be 10% better off in just 2 wins. This movement and constant commisons is what costs, and ensures that sucessfull a punter pays far more in excess of 20% in commision due to this.
A person that hardly loses does not reuse the funds, they move forward, tharefore they do not re-pay the commision. Well they do now, all being equall this is 'fair'. While 'fair', it ensures that no one esscapes the 20% tax on gross profit be it that you pay it in small amounts or large lump sum. What needs to be done is to have this factored into your betting strategy.
Will you still be better off ? Is the batfair advantage that great to offset the money grabed in exchange for the services provided? Diversification of betting accounts is probably the best policy. There will be people whose strategy requires laying a horse be it in trade or straight out . They have nowhere else to go. Those that bet straight out need to reases the situation.
Lets asume that we place $2 bets in TAB and BEtfair and we get $2 win divs every time (for ease of calculation)
Bet TAB Betfair
1 $2 $2 Win
2 $2 $2 Loss
3 $2 $2 Win
4 $2 $2 Loss
5 $2 $2 Win
Sumary, Each account has same risk that is 5 x $2 = 10
TAB account has a profit of 12 - 10 = $2
Betfair has 12-(6x0.05) -10 = $1.7 profit you are 15%
behind the TAB.
The more you use Betfair the greater is the gap that you need to fill I would suggest that the 20% is a nice round and realistic figgure. As long as you have a reasonable strike rate but your divs arent 20% greater then the next commision free betting facility, over all you are not going forward as fast as you would like or COULD.
There was an interview with a well known punter who said something to the effect that you cant beat the Betfair takout, he was, I realise more right ten I thought then.
I have been meaning to write this for some time but never quite found the right words and example, I hope that I have now. This isnt meant to be defamitory its meant to serve as a help in developing a better bet placing strategy I would say that if you arent getting 15% better you are infact loosing more then you realise.
Michal
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