Hi Michael,


I would seriously consider not betting on selections that combined give you a profit of 24c after TWO sucessfull results.

That maths is against you. Lets say that one horse payed 1.24 take that and say there will be 10 bets where you get that 9 x 1.24 = 11.16
8 x 1.24 = 9.92

I realise that there were 2 horses one 1.2 and the other 1.04 on NSW TAB BUT

At 80% strike rate you are LOOSING, sure such low divs will or should ensure that the horses probably will run a place but somwhere in the 85% which is your break even. All you have is a good strike rate and no money, unfortunately.

Consider this

You loose 2 selections paying 1.2 that is -$2

To recover that loss you will have to win the NEXT 10 races at that Div JUST TO RECOVER.

Im talking about divs brackets, obviously your next bet might be $1.6 and next $1.4 and so on and you'll need only 4 of those to recover. By looking at the strike rate in the price ranges you will be able to make a educated decision and leave races that are risky in terms of loss recovery.

Take weekend Hustler Im sure he was 1.04 for a place ?
That loss will now take TWENTY FIVE CONSECUTIVE wins JUST to recover. Do you now see how fantactic value that bet is for the bookies, 1 in 25 for break even and 2 in 25 and they are infront ........

Im also Sure that there isnt a horse running on ANY Sunday that Justifys $1.04.

Look for profitability of results NOT strike rate of results.

Michal