One more clarification, Michael, if I may. In writing about which horse to lay you say:

Is the idea that you lay the one closest to $11 (no matter if there are other horses who would qualify by being not among the Sky selections) or do you go for the lowest of those not in the Sky selections (and so have a lesser liability)?

You did mention that a smaller field means that one of the four mentioned on Sky are likely to take the money; but it is also a fact, surely, that the larger the field the more is the possibility that something else will get up (besides your pick to lose)!