
11th October 2008, 11:39 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,791
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Hi, Merriguy.
In these cases where there is more than one selection I trust the Betfair market. I ignore the one with the lower liability and I then lay the one closest to $11.
Unfortunately I don't have the complete results of field size for last Tuesday but with the results that I've got I've split races (1) with starters of 11 and less, and (2) with starters of 12 runners or more.
My records show (omitting last Tuesday) that there have been 11 selections in fields of 12-plus runners. Of these there have been 2 accidents (I don't have records for the 2 other accidents that occurred last Tuesday), one selection that ran second, and six that ran third. Today I have layed two selections - Caulfield R1 no.10 and Port Mac race 3 no.10. Both were in fields of 12 runners and both selections ran second!!! In fact, these two successes today has put 12-plus runners into profit.
However, in fields of 11 or less there have been (again, omitting Tuesday) 25 selections for no accidents, two selections that ran second and three that ran third.
As a matter of interest, even though there were two accidents on Tuesday, the method won 5.45 units for that day.
This very small sample (a total of 36 selections) currently shows that the smaller fields might be encouraging. Only time will tell...
Since last Tuesday there have been 46 successes from 50 selections for a profit of 30.75 units.
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