20th October 2008, 09:57 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,436
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So often we hear -
x% of top raters win
x% of the top two
x% of the top three
etc
Whilst that's a good guide to overall performance, it is not a guide to accuracy.
A good example are the unitab ratings. The ratings pretty much breakdown as expected distribution of winners.
However, if one were to bet overlays and lay underlays, one would be severely out of pocket. The market peforms better.
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