Some of this sounds like manufactured 'special pleading', especially when we start talking about 'correctly' rating a horse and recognising overlays[?]. We win only if we correctly pick the winner regardless of ratings or overlays. Any mechanical 'science' of picking winners requires 'all' facts to be known and that will never be possible in this game. Art and intuition plays a big roll in picking winners. There will never be a mechanical science of picking winners as horses and Jockeys aren't machines and many unknown variables decide a winner more often than not.

I picked up a 15/1 shot today (Kyneton r5/5 SUPERIOR SHADOW 16.60w Stab) and my decision to back it had nothing to do with science, ratings or perceived overlay, just good old form study and a bit of art and intuition.