Chrome,
I'll have a go at a reply.

What you were saying sounds correct on paper but you cant work out things like profit = 500% but risk was 600% [?]. The method is known as "Special pleading"[create a false "fact" and then base your argument on it]. The only fact is the 500% profit, not the 600% [or whatever] risk.

Risk [odds if you like] is a subjective thing in horse racing as in everything and can't be measured with maths [the goal of a system creating a golden egg], If so there would be a maths formula to work out precise odds of a horse winning which as you know, can't be done. Your 600% [or whatever] risk might have in fact been .01% or 1000% depending on the subjective measure [point of view or a collection of subjective measures].

Such things as tossing a penny can be worked out as a 50% chance of head or tails being equaly thrown in eventual totality [pure maths] but not where you are going to be score wise even after a million future throws. You could be rich or you could have lost a fortune and your shirt at any future point.

Gunny makes a good point about backfitted stats. They can never be a calculation of a certain future position profit wise. It's the old penny tossing scenario. Have a thousand flips and note your score, then have another thousand and you will see what Gunny means. You might get a similar result but it could be wildly different too just as easily. I have seen the Maths. on this penny thing by a mathamatician and it soundly dumps the notion that future probability is equal to past probability except to an infinate point of a 50% x 50% result [and we will never live that long].
Your chances are always 50% of throwing your choice per throw but say after your 1000th. throw you could have 300 wins to 700 losses just as easily as 700 wins and 300 losses. Your chances of either are exactly 50% [or if you like, your "risk" of either result is 50%].

A punter could back a horse for $10000 to win at 2/1 and think his chances of winning are even. You could be [while choking on your pie] thinking, "what a mug, that nags chances with that weight at this distance are about 1000/1. The horse wins. What were his chances or true odds of winning? Backfitted they were 100%.

Chance or risk in Horse racing I believe is nothing more than a subjective guide. The reason some punters win and some loose is that some guess [judge future probability and therefore are less wrong] better than others most of the time.

Risk management can only ever be subjectively measured and as humans we do that well enough to survive as a species but not well enough that we all can get rich on the punt.There can never be a formula [but we can all have a great time trying to find one].

Cheers.









[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-01 04:36 ]