Chrome,

Your "Bank" is a present fact.
Your "maximum drawdown" is a past result.
Your "risk" is also a past result.

Presenting them all as future fact is "special pleading" [1 present fact + 2 past results = 3 future facts]. Your measurable risk then is based on assumption which is not usefuly measurable but could be used as a guide for future prediction [only].

If your maximum drawdown is exceeded at some future time, you must create a new maximum drawdown and risk % as new "facts". Meaning your earlier MD was not a maximum at all.

If however I am incorrect and your MD wont in the future be exceeded [is a known and measurable fact] then you are correct and risk can be measured. If that is so then could you please tell me the maths formula you used to mesure your MD [that was then used to measure risk %]. No maths formula, no facts.

It's all a bit like plotting the path of hurricanes based on their previous paths I'm afraid. Cannot be accurately done. A general guide sure, but reliable never [not even after examining millions of previous ones].

If you can measure MD or risk with maths [I am waiting on the formula not the argument], we are both wrong about not being able to measure exact odds using maths, but somehow I don't think so. Do you ?

Cheers.

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-01 23:57 ]