Hi crash,

I agree with what you say.

What I am getting at though is the "best" way of measuring or presenting things.

Nobody can predict accurately the future, but we can make a pretty good guess. How accurate that guess is depends on the research done I believe, otherwise may as well stick to level stakes or such.

In answer to your question...

Maximum Drawdown = (Bank Highest Point) - (Bank Subsequent Lowest Point)

Risk = (Maximum Drawdown / Starting Bank) x 100/1

I hope this was what you were after.

What I do though is randomise the results many times and run simulations as mentioned earlier and calculate various outcomes for each scenario - it's a better guide.

All of the above is a guide, as you say there are no guarantees, I'm just looking at the best way of making a better prediction.