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Old 2nd November 2003, 09:23 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Gunny,

the only sane general rule that springs to mind about staking plans, is don't increase your stakes during a losing run.


Although your stakes don't increase in absolute terms they do the next worst thing. Remember Kelly's Edge/Odds. Your Odds are increasing so your bets should be decreasing. But holding them level is overstaking.

Also your probability of losing again ~INCREASES with every losing bet. The road to ruin.

Some with effective selection methods are philosophical when they have a long losing run. They know that a lot of competitors with shallower banks will get shaken out, and once that happens the value will return.

But using your staking, you'd fizzle out as soon as you hit a bad run. Exactly what the aforementioned stoics want you to do.
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