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Old 7th November 2008, 08:22 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Peter,

Formguides on-line and off-line, have improved a lot over the years and will continue to do so. However, there will never be a 'perfect' formguide as there is just too much info. we will never know and can never know. How does anyone compute unknown riding instructions from a trainer and hundreds of other unknowns that can affect the outcome of a race? Info. that is accessible has been computed to death from every which way by individuals and professionals [profitably and unprofitably]. There is also many commercial data programs available.

Nothing wrong with a punter thinking that they have seen a new unexploited angle that might be profitable as you have done here. Rarely is there any new insight to improve punting results, but I'm sure they do occur and some punters profit by them. The phrase 'nothing new under the sun' comes to mind.

Consider that before computers, the average win strike rate of fav. was around 30% and the number of punters making a profit was around 3-5%. Today, with all the computing power available to us to collect and manipulate a lot more stats. than were ever available before, the average win strike rate for fav. is still 30% and the number of punters making a profit is still only around 3-5% !

The best improvement in trying to win at this game has been the time it takes to do things, thanks to computers. Punters improve their returns mostly by improving money management skills and knowing when a bet is a good or bad bet [win or lose] and knowing when not to bet in a race. In other words punting management. Betting on horses and the humans on them will never be an exact science that can be reduced to raw data, there is just too many variables.

Good luck!
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