
12th November 2008, 11:42 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
|
|
I have used that idea Paul, & it can work very well.
. Target races with 11 runners & less.
.Target the 2nd,3rd & 4th Fav
.Bet 3+3+2 = 8 units on each race.
.That's 37.5% + 37.5% + 25% of ones total race bet unit.
.The SR is 43%
.It comes out at just break even at level stakes over 100 races which is stronger than just betting the Fav on its own .
Using Betfair the bets are placed 1-2 min from jump time.
Because it breaks even, one can introduce a staking plan.
Keep in mind one will see odd runs of say 10 outs when the Favs decide to get up all day, so be prepared.
The run of outs are greatly reduced if one targets Hcp races only , for some reason the Favs don't seem to dominate as much & this includes races where there are odds on favs.
Staking plans can work well if there is a break even situation of its selections at level stakes.
If the maths stats are correct , the chance of 30% chance Favs getting up in 8 races in a row is .0065%
.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30 = .0000656 x 100 = .0065%
or 100 / .0065 = 15384.6 / 100 = 154
1 chance in 154 races.
If that is correct , how come it seems to happen so often?
Cheers.
__________________
Cheers.
|