View Single Post
  #4  
Old 16th November 2008, 05:41 PM
stebbo stebbo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Yarra Valley
Posts: 241
Default

Hammers,

there is one way, and only one way, to adquately test a system. Put real $ on it. Even if it's only $10 per bet, you have to put real money on the selections before you can have any confidence in them whatsoever.

Work out the maximum drawdown and double it. Work out the longest run of outs and multiply it by 4. Take the largest of these two numbers and this is how many units you should allocate. Multiply this by how much you will put on each bet and put that amount of money into a bookie account.

Then bet them all. Every single one. Until you have lots of money or the account is zero. Don't pull out if the bank is down by half or down by three quarters, or even if the bank gets close to zero. Bet them till the bank is actually zero. If you pull out before the bank is zero then you haven't given the strategy an adequate test.

For example, if your Maximum Drawdown for your existing trial is 60 units, then you need to allocate a 120 unit bank. If you wish to bet $10 per unit, then set aside $1,200 that you can afford to lose. Start betting. And don't stop until that bank is completely gone.

Cheers,
Chris.
__________________
Permanence is an illusion
Reply With Quote