18th November 2008, 11:54 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by stugots
kelly - full, 1/2, 1/4? which?
& probability of winning %, how does one calculate this magical figure? pulling it out of you know where seems a common enough method...
an example based on hammers numbers would be most welcome jfc
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Full Kelly. Fractional Kelly is only for those who don't understand what Kelly means.
Hammers' observed strike rate of 31.3% is 305/976
statpages.org/confint.html
Feed that in to the confidence tool to find:
28.35% is the strike rate that you can be confident of exceeding.
Presto. |