Hi guys and in particular Partypooper,

Your simple plan surrounding the favourite caught my attention. Have you any sort of stats on this plan,..? I dont have access to any great data base, but I have collected some books over the years written by "professionals in this game". So I dont think I am allowed to give my resources out here, but, some of the stats I have come up with on favs are:

A winning fav who was a last start winner, won 35% of its races.
" " " second, won 24% of its races.
" " " third, won 10% of its races.
These stats DO NO include first uppers or first starters. The actual win % of these for favs is pretty low ( 8% and 3%).

A couple of other interesting stats for favs is the prizemoney factor, based on ranked order of prizemoney.

Favs with the top ranked PM win 36% of their races.

Then we have the Win Strike ranking order.

Favs with the top ranked Win Strike win 31% of their races.

Then we come to the "Days since last start". This is what my source book tells me in relation to favs:

7 days and less 10%
14 days 46%
21 days 20%
28 days 4%
29 plus 11%

I have a few other stats on here also, but I dont want to go on and on.

So what do we then make of all this. See if I can get my brain around a few things here, just thought I would toss these around, more minds are better than one.

Paul