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26th November 2008, 12:29 AM
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I believe most progressive staking plans can be dangerous if one cant pick the winners.
That goes for level stakes as well but not as dangerous
Some rules I follow when using most staking approaches.
DUE TARGET METHOD
If using a due target plan e.g. $5 a race plus losses.
e.g. 10 races at $5 profit per race = $50 target by the 10th bet + losses
Target per race should be .01% of bank.
So $5 a race, should be using a $5000 bank.
Ones max bet should be under 4% of bank.
If bet requires an amount 4%+, add say 3 to 5pts to the divisor.
This will bring the outlay down below the 4% for the next few races.
This helps keep things in check until the winners decide to pop up.
I also stop betting if I strike say 9 outs in a row then wait for 2 winners to get up before recommencing.
It's not the most perfect way of avoiding the long run of outs, but it does give one the feeling of some control.
FIXED TARGET METHOD
If going for a fixed target amount, I feel an amount of 1 to 2.5% of bank is the safest.
I believe its usually best not to carry over losses if possible , it tends to have a disturbing influence on the general psyche of a punter.
Try a stop for the day if up on ones bank is up between 1.5 - 5% on the day .
Its amazing how often a punter is up in the say the first half of the day, only to give it all back in the next half of the day.
What is also amazing is that 5% seems to be a lot easier to achieve than say 8% .
One will often find they hit the magic 5% then battle for the rest of the day to end up with the same 5% ,weird!
Discipline is the big thing alright & very few punters have it.
I feel if one practices stopping at say 5% or less , they should have a greater chance of long term success.
The most successful plans seem to be the stop at a winner for the day.
Most punters don't like this idea because they feel there is more winners to be had where that came from & there's the rub and raises the question, is the punter more interested in a volumn of winners or are they interested in making money.
I feel one should restart at the beginning as soon as any profit is made , no matter how small because its the going for the promise of the big pay off is the punters undoing long term.
Therefore I feel staking plans should realy be used to recover losses more so than making huge profits.
BETTING TO PRICE
An alternatitve to level stakes betting which usually works well is betting to price to return say 5% of bank.
This allows for approx 40 outs on average selections.
e.g. Bank $5000 @ 5% = $250
Say our horse is $4.00 divided into $250 = O/L $63
With this method , we are assuming more shorter priced horses get up than longer priced horses which is usually the case according to the stats.
What this tries to do is even out the returns long term.
Example.Betting to price to return $250
R1- $4.00 ........O/L $63
R2 - $2.20 .......... 114
R3 - 2.80 ............ 89
R4 - 10.00 ........... 25
R5 - $5.00 ........... 50
R6 - $6.00 ........... 42
Total O/L $383
Lets say the 2 shortest priced horses got up for a ret 2 x $250 = $500
$500 - $383 = +$117 profit
If betting level stakes, a loss of 1 unit or -16.7%
or -$63.83 if the above Total amount was bet accross the 6 selections, same amount on each.
One of course is going to miss out when the larger payers get up , but just in case you havent already noticed , most level stakes selection plans show a level stakes loss, mainly because more was not placed on the winning prices & less money should have been placed on the loosing prices.
Most of the winning prices will be at the shorter end of town and that is what this plan is trying to address.
It often improves a selection plans results.
Its an idea to treat odds on horses as $2.20 if one feels they must bet these commodities.
LEVEL STAKES METHOD
This plan can work very well.
Bet 1/200th of bank up & down .
Reset bet amount at the start of each new day..
e.g. If we are down to say $180 , bet 1/200th of this remaining amount for the whole day.
The reason 1/200th is used is that it smooths out the rapid ups & downs on the bank balance, that can happen if using a lesser divisor.
It is also very good for the confidence of a punter knowing there is a strategy in place, especially after a horror run of outs.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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