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Old 9th December 2008, 04:59 PM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Framing your own market is an effective way to punt like the pros and allows you to analyse a race and put an odds figure on any horse to find horses representing true value.

Criteria for framing your own market:
A simple way to do this is to have a maximum and minimum figure to work with that can give you a percentage that can be converted to odds, and ideally that would be from 0 to 10, with 10 points being best and zero points being worst.

Chance Points
Great Chance 10
Good Chance 8
Fair Chance 6
Some Chance 4
Rough Chance 2
No Chance 0

Assessing a race:
Once you have picked out a race to assess you can then work your way through each horse’s form and give it a rating from 0 to 10. If you consider a horse has no chance then you would give it zero, and if you thought it was a great chance then you would give it a 10, and anywhere in between for any other chances.

Assume you have finished analysing a race with 8 horses and allotted the following points.

Horse Rating Points:
Don't Cry, Fair Chance 6
Mama Mia, Good Chance 8
November Rain, Some Chance 4
Sweet Child, No Chance 0
Paradise City, Rough Chance 2
My Michelle, Good Chance 8
Like a Lady, No Chance 0
Civil War, No Chance 0

Finalise market chances:
You have narrowed a field of eight horses down to only 5 realistic chances as shown below.

Horse Points:
Don't Cry 6
Mama Mia 8
November Rain 4
Paradise City 2
My Michelle 8
Points 28

Convert chances percentage to odds:
It is a simple process to convert each horse’s points to a percentage which will then allow a price to be attached to each horse. The five horses combined total of points is 28. We simply divide each horse's individual points by the total of 28 and then multiply by 100 to get the percentage figure. Using the percentage converter at the bottom of the page we can then put a monetary figure to each horse's percentage and we have our market.

Horse Calculation Percentage Odds:
Don't Cry 6/28 *100 21% $4.75
Mama Mia 8/28 *100 29% $3.50
November Rain 4/28 *100 14% $7.00
Paradise City 2/28 *100 7% $14.00
My Michelle 8/28 *100 29% $3.50
Market 100%

Compare rated odds to actual odds:
Now that you have created a price for each horse it is relatively easy to determine a horse’s value when you see the actual market for the race.

Horse Percentage Rated Odds Actual Odds Value:
Don't Cry 21% $4.75 $3.50 No
Mama Mia 29% $3.50 $6.50 Yes
November Rain 14% $7.00 $6.00 No
Paradise City 7% $14.00 $4.25 No
My Michelle 29% $3.50 $5.50 Yes

Sticking to this [your own] subjective valuation will let you know how good your form assesments are and if reasonable, you will be betting overlays, not underlays which is the only way to profit on the punt.
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