22nd December 2008, 02:30 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Paul,
The last-start win must be at the same track as today.
· The last-start win must have been by one length or more.
· The horse must have the best Average Prizemoney Per Start in today’s field.
· The horse’s winning percentage must be 20%+
· The distance of today’s race must be within 200m of the last-start win.
· Today’s jockey must be Top 5 in the premiership.
The problem I see with this is that the win strike rate is high, but is simply poor value.
Most punters have already looked at these as filters and are actually contained within the prices. Therefore if you filter again on the criteria that is popular, you are ensuring only poor value.
I think that is the most important point here, and with many selection methods.
For example, must have a 50% win record and 75% place record and won on the track. This has to be poor value, because this is already embedded in the price and you are filtering out any possible value.
To come up with a higher strike rate and value, I'd suggest doing some research on areas that aren't so obvious to every punter, this is the only way (in my opinion) to obtain value, even on very short priced horses. You need to have something extra (an edge) over everyone else. This advantage creates value.
You don't necessarily have to be getting 50/1 on a horse to be getting value, you can get even money on a horse and it can be value, if you know something that's not in the newspaper.
Some suggestions:
Days break
Gear changes
Trainer changes
Breeding
Trackwork
Trials
Stewards Reports
Note down horses that perform well when there's money for them, note down horses that are always well supported, but very rarely win.
You can seek out your own value.
There are horses running around that have started favourite 5 times and never come better than 3rd placing when favourite. Even if they win next start, they are longterm poor value.
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