22nd December 2008, 02:59 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Here are some examples of what I'm talking about...
Light Red 6 times favourite
2 wins 3 placings
As favourite, this horse should be at a minimum of 4 from 6 placings
This horse was also a $2.00 favourite and failed to win.
Everything points to it being a weak horse.
It has a 28% place loss on turnover and a 10% win loss on turnover.
I would not be taking short prices about this horse ever.
Purple Chocolate 8 times favourite
0 wins 4 placings
100% win loss on turnover 26.25% place loss on turnover
A weak horse.
They could both go on and record win after win, but not with my money at short prices.
Then we have a horse like Rightfully Yours
4 starts as favourite
3 wins 3 placings
65% win profit on turnover
2.5% place profit on turnover
75% win/place strike rate as favourite
The shortest price it started as was $1.60 in an Open class race and it won.
The longest price as favourite was $2.80 and it won an Open class Feehan.
I think you get the general gist.
Winners keep winning, losers keep losing - in general.
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