22nd December 2008, 06:27 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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One way I use to sort the wheat from the chaff, is to line up the first four in the betting and give them a rating on price and strike rate.
E.G. a horse that starts @ $2.00 and wins receives 50 points out of 50
This is NOT a ratings method, as class distinctions cannot be made, it is a method to identify weak and strong favourites. Given that horses should win about the correct proportion to percentage chance given, as the market is staggeringly accurate if rounded to 100%, one can identify value favourites and poor value favourites.
It really isn't about whther the horse wins or loses on the day, it's the longterm value angle I'm interested in.
I'll give just two examples to demonstrate, one value favourite and one poor value favourite.
29/9/2008
Belmont Race 2 Open Class
Top three in betting in a small field
Magical Belle $2.80
Russian Playmate $3.60
Clare Castle $5.50
Magical Belle
Take all the wins she's had and divide the price of each win by 100 and add it up.
She gets a score of 85.83
Russian Playmate scores 5.62!!!
Clarecastle scores 55.55 (one win @ $1.80)
Magical Belle on top
Clarecastle behind
Russian Playmate a distant last pick
Magical Belle confirms herself by winning @ $2.80
Russian Playmate runs second
Clarecastle third
The important part here, is that Magical Belle was a confirmed strong favourite and duly saluted by 1 & 3/4 lengths.
If I switch across to race 1 at Belmont on the same day....
Axtel $2.80
Marine Drive $3.80
Sky Marshall $4.90
Another small field of 7 runners
Axtel rated 31
Marine Drive 31.28
Sky Marshall 12.82
This shows a vulnerable and low rated weak favourite.
Although Axtel went down by only half a head, surely it's ironic that the horse lost to Reverend Lovejoy which rated 59.86 and was about fourth pick in the betting in a small field.
They spaced the others by 2 & 1/4 lengths.
This is not a demonstration about picking winners, anyone can pluck two races and show winners and losers, it is a clear demonstration of value.
A horse fourth pick in the betting, rated well above three other well fancied runners, wins at a value price.
P.S. Reverend Lovejoy won his start after the at $4.40 as well.
Magical Belle ran 2nd next start beaten .30 of a length.
I haven't rated the subsequent races.
Cassandara Shadow was beaten @ $1.50 favourite and punters poured more money next start.
Beaten @ odds of even money.
Stewards report:
CASSANDARA SHADOW slow into stride. Raced wide from the 800m. When questioned regarding the disappointing performance, rider advised that after taking the filly wide from the 800m it had travelled strongly but was then under pressure shortly after straightening and failed to run on thereafter. Trainer advised that the filly's hard run at its previous start at Belmont on 27 September 2008 may have adversely affected its performance today and it was now his intention to send it for a spell. A post race Veterinary examination revealed the filly to have a slightly elevated heart rate.
Beaten into 5th placing in a 7 horse field.
All one really needs to do is pick horses that live up to their odds on a consistent basis, that seperates the one hit wonders from better horses.
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