Hi kenchar,

A while ago I did an analysis (oops) of the various strike rates of favourites on Metro tracks versus country/provincial.

Amazingly they were outstandingly similar give or take 1 or 2 percent.

Where you have the edge on the statistical punter (for want of a better term) is being on track and word of mouth etc etc with maidens is exactly what you need.
I leave out maidens and lower classes purely because I don't have access to this kind of information.

It's a credit to you that you do, and use that information to your advantage.

I should add that my strike rate on certain tracks is far better than others and would never back ALL Metro track races.

If you look at some of the huge odds results lately I stayed away from the race for various reasons such as:

Track condition poor
Field too large in size
My definition of class was not there
Race was a raffle with too many unknowns
Unexposed form

To me the Cup yesterday was lacking class and had far too many unknown factors.

This is evidenced by She's Archie running so well when her form was so lower class compared to other better credentialled horses.

One could have backed her in retrospect given that Geelong Cup form held up earlier in the day with Zazzman winning - but I didn't.

In summary, the statistics are very similar whether it be country or metro tracks taking into account comparable track conditions and field sizes.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-11-05 14:51 ]