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Old 20th January 2009, 05:51 PM
Tonymess Tonymess is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Aussie Open with Tonymess

Australian Open Round 2 - my rated prices (to 100%) - for those that don't know the shortest price I rate anyone is 1.03 (conversely 33.33 is the longest).

MALISSE, XAVIER 4.33 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.3 - Malisse had to qualify here (another Slam Semi Finalist - along with Hrbaty - who had to slog it out over three consecutive days even to make the draw), not the player he was but may push Roddick a little. A-Rod too short with bookies for my liking.

SANTORO, FABRICE 2.17 vs KOHLSCHREIBER, PHILIPP 1.86 - Kohl ridiculously short in early markets for a bloke who pulled out of Auckland last week with a shoulder problem. Value play would be Santoro, for a small amount.

ROBREDO, TOMMY 1.6 vs Troicki, Viktor 2.67 - Bookies are betting close to my prices (if they'd bet to a 100% book they would be!!!). No betting here.

NALBANDIAN, DAVID 1.03 vs LU, YEN-HSUN 33.33 - A fit healthy Bandy wins this, but there are a heap of guys put up under 1.10 today and I can't come at punting at those prices.

SODERLING, ROBIN 1.5 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 3 - Soderling a bit of value at 1.65 and Baggy is priced on what he has done in previous years, not where he's at right now - I'm on the Swede.

BOLELLI, SIMONE 2.47 vs FISH, MARDY 1.68 - Bookies put up prices similar to mine so why punt?

MATHIEU, PAUL-HENRI 1.27 vs DELIC, AMER 4.7 - Never been able to get Mathieu right and Delic just a serve (which doesn't always land in the court - and I mean the whole court, sometimes the crowd is an option). I'm ignoring this match and the form out of it.

Chardy, Jeremy 4.32 vs Djokovic, Novak 1.3 - Djokovic not really switched on in his appearances so far this year, and Chardy an up and comer (will be popular with the top shelf crowd even it's only becuase of his name). No way I'd take 1.08 Djokovic at the moment, but given his experience he should win.

MAYER, FLORIAN 8.64 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 1.13 - Del Potro winning Auckland as a lead in, Mayer playing New Caledonia Challenger and then qualifying here, attempting to get back to his best. His slice returns may upset the rhythm of Del Potro, but current form has Argentine written all over this. Not that I'd be jumping into the 1.05 that's on offer.

Tomic, Bernard 33.33 vs MULLER, GILLES 1.03 - Tomic rated no hope by myself, due to the fact he's been in my database about 3 minutes. Has the bonueses of crowd support and Muller potentially being exhausted by his 16-14 5th set in in R1. Tomic two wins and 1 loss to lefties so no idea about how he handles them. I do expect Muller to win this but I don't bet against local players. I pity anyone who has night tickets to Rod Laver and cops this sham - I'd be asking for my money back.

Cilic, Marin 1.27 vs TIPSAREVIC, JANKO 4.67 - Tipsarevic been out of sorts in Australia and did battle in R1. These guys played a few weeks ago in Chennai with Cilic winning 64,06,64 but then they bet 1.52, now you have to take 1.40 or so. Serb vs a Croat so fireworks in the crowd a potential distraction. If I was forced to have a bet on this match it would be Cilic. Only if I was forced though.

FERRER, DAVID 2.87 vs HRBATY, DOMINIK 1.54 - Hrbaty the outsider with the books, had to qualify here and beat the big serving giant Isner in 4 sets, Ferrer taking 5 to beat the average Gremelmayr. Both of these have made the Quarters here before and both are Slam Semi Finalists so show court 3 is not a bad venue for them. Value is with Hrbaty all the way and he's worth a small punt.

WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 1.28 vs Klein, Brydan 4.54 - Aussie will need all of the support to make him believe he is even a rough chance. Wawrinka at 1.05 or so is a joke, it was only a few years ago I saw him in qualifying (getting whipped by Djokovic).

DABUL, BRIAN 7.04 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 1.17 - Berdych the Safin of the noughties - which one will be on court? Not taking a ridiculous price even in a multi, should win easily though.

SAFIN, MARAT 1.63 vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, GUILLERMO 2.58 - Safin way shorter than my rated price, but if the real one turns up (which can do at these events) then he is a 1.25 shot. Garcia-Lopez will struggle even if Safin is only 75% tuned up.

FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 vs Korolev, Evgueni 33.33 - The great one wins but there is no way I'd take 1.02/1.03 about any bet not even in multis.

I'll be trying Hrbaty and Soderling - maybe having a nibble at Santoro. Besides that all the short priced ones can go around without me.

Cheers

Tony
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