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Old 23rd January 2009, 10:54 PM
Tonymess Tonymess is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Apologies for missing Friday's matches, been flat out.

Saturday at Melbourne Park.

HAAS, TOMMY 5.19 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.23 - Nadal holds a H2H of 3-0 advantage (Haas not taking a set) and Haas no longer the player he was. Brittle body probably won't have the power to match Nadal here.

GASQUET, RICHARD 1.46 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 3.15 - Amazingly not played before and bookies have this the other way around. Gasquet a little enigmatic and Gonzo does do well here, but the Frenchman being over 2.0 means he has to be tried, just as a value punt.

Monfils, Gael 1.08 vs ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 14.26 - A win each in two encounters. Current prices available Monfils are actually juicy. Bloke can throw in a shocker now and again so be warned - may have his act together with a new coach. May not!!!

Simon, Gilles 1.9 vs ANCIC, MARIO 2.11 - Ancic won their only encounter back in March last year in Miami in a three setter. Simon's style of play should counter Ancic's - an interesting one but not one where I'd punt.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03 vs MELZER, JURGEN 33.33 - Murray with a 3-0 record against Melzer, but Melzer took it to 5 at the US Open last year and to 4 on grass in the Davis Cup later in the year. For the record Murray is 29 wins and 8 losses to lefties (5 of those losses have been to Nadal and if you take him out of the equation he hasn't lost to a southpaw since Di Mauro in a Challenger 3 years ago when Murray was still eligible for junior events). Ridiculously short, but wins.

STEPANEK, RADEK 2.52 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.66 - Stepanek 3-0 in the H2H stakes and has a 43 win 15 loss record to lefties (includes those three matches). Bookies price it very similar to my prices so leave it alone.

BLAKE, JAMES 1.38 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 3.62 - Blake with a 5-0 H2H record against the Russian - another match where bookies aren't offering a lot of value.

SELA, DUDI 3.27 vs TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.44 - Tsonga a lot shorter with the books but does have a dodgy back so I wouldn't be jumping at short prices. Played last year with Tsonga winning 2&4.

Probably another conservative day of punting but the young Frenchmen Gasquet and Monfils are value prices so probably the ones worth trying. Chuck Murray into multis as well if you want to add a further 6% to your calcs.

Cheers

Tony
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