Must be my kiwi accent LOL. Yes, you are both right in that I look for a horse that has been plunged, particularly when the favouritism is under double figures. It takes more money to change the odds the better the favouritism.

The 5/7 example of Frivolous:
ELLS (R) 28Dec08 225 dys 1st up 4 of 9 Rating 70 $15K 1200m G2 Wrkd rnd to ld,hdd 300,btld well in A Calder [R66] 56.5 (8) 4/5 $6.40 1 Josun 1:10.55 1.4L

AVON (R) 17Jan09 20 dys 2nd up 11 of 16 Rating 70 $15K 1400m G3 5th btwn runrs,wknd 250m T Sasada [R66] 56.5 (8) 5/7 $11.70 1 Triple aa 1:23.97 5.7L

At Ellerslie first up, ran 4th (1.4L), battled well. Next start at Avondale when 5/7, weakened last 250m. Both these races were on right handed tracks. In 4 starts of it's career, Frivolous had won his only race left handed.

Starting at Te Rapa (left handed) and with improvement from previous 2 runs, wins at huge odds.

There are sometimes a number of horses that fit the bill so some filtering is required. Frivolous was a great example.

I think following a horse for no more than 3 starts from it's non-placed effort when plunged should hopefully pick up a dividend. Some big win dividends can be had.

By the way, I tipped out this horse on another forum.

Cheers, Rich

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