24th February 2009, 06:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Food for thought...
"Odds on - look on"
Backing all odds on favourites at tote prices you lose 9.99%.
Take top fluctuation and my guess is losing less than 4.99%
Taking Betfair SP is spot on the knocker breakeven and then you pay commission, so you're back to somewhere between -3% and -5%.
What's interesting - highly interesting, is that the most obvious filter increases profit.
Last start winners (odds on) return 7.21% loss
Last start 2nd (odds on) return 10.78% loss
Last start 3rd (odds on) return 18.51% loss
Last start unplaced (odds on) return 11.95% loss
First starters odds on 13.53% loss
You only need to find one additional filter and you can back and lay depending on the rating.
Look for horses that continually get rolled at short prices and lay them, look for horses that continually win at short prices and back them.
You can't go wrong.
As for what you are mentioning, I know of this gentleman, I believe he's been going a while, and there are no good reports about anything he's spruiked.
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