Hi Puntz,

I know 16 systems sounds like a lot, but I never set out to start betting this many. It sort of just turned out this way.

Backtesting to me makes perfect sense. I don't want to risk money on a strategy if I have no confidence in it's ability to work. When I started this journey I knew very little about horses and horse racing in general, so for me to try to do the form and succeed was simply not going to work...

I recently spent 3 months going through my past database using a ratings system. I tested about 20 different variables using discrete values. For instance, I tested the top rated selection if it was up in weight by exactly 0.5Kg, again if it was up in weight by exactly 1.0Kg, 1.5kg, etc, etc, etc. I did this for lengths beaten or won last start, in 0.5 length increments. I did this for days since last start in 1 day increments, for last start finish position in increments of one, for changes of distance in 100m increments, etc, etc, etc. I then started testing some of these variables in pairs.

I learned so much from the exercise. I know exactly how those ratings perform in a large number of different scenarios, and found that a surprisingly large number of factors that others think are important, are in fact of little importance.

At the end of the exercise, I took what I learned and built a system from it. I'm now running that system in real time, and it's working quite well.

Half my systems are based on ratings, and the other half are "mechanical" systems. About 6 of my systems are commercial systems that I've purchased, the rest I've devised myself or traded with others.

Others on this forum have attacked almost every commercial systems provider I know of, and I find this quite amusing. Before I purchased my first ever system, and I knew nothing about racing, I automatically assumed that there was only a small chance that the system would work.... But I took the risk anyway. (and the first one was a huge flop too :sad: )

My current best performing system is one which I got out of a magazine for free.... 130 bets, 34% S/R and 25% Flat stakes POT.... :smile: Mind you, with the first 56 bets it was never in profit, and lost 60% of the bank... Again, I could have been tempted to give up at that stage, but I stuck with it.

Having 16 systems allows me to turn over larger amounts of money than I would be comfortable with if I only bet 2 or 3 systems, and remember that POT * Turnover = Profit, and it's Profit I'm interested in. To illustrate, so far this financial year I have turned over some $27,000 on win/place bets alone, and my largest single system bet is currently $36. While I will agree that there's not a lot of difference, I'm much happier putting $20 on 50 bets on a Saturday, than $500 on 2 bets. My aim is to turn over about $1M per year, with a 5% to 10% POT.

Every time I introduce a new system, I go and find $500 or $1000 and physically put that into my punting bank. I consider it lost from that moment on. At worst, I hope it lasts 6 months so that at least I can get some enjoyment out of it... At best I hope that it grows to $5,000 or $10,000 or .....

As many have said before, there's many ways to skin the punting cat. My way is probably not the way many would choose to go.. some may even suggest that I'm mad.... It may not even be the way that I end up with in 3 or 4 years time, but it is currently working for me.

But I will reiterate what I said earlier on, the only way that it will continue to work is if I stick to my plan. I review my plan every 6 to 8 weeks, and review my financial position weekly. I have been tempted a few times to do something different, to not back that particular donkey that's starting at $20 or $30... Each time I've been disciplined enough to follow my plan, and more often than not it pays off.

Cheers,
Chris.