7th March 2009, 08:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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No prepost market, even ratings can even predict the eventual favourite, or price, because of stable money, trackwork results (both public and hidden) and veterinary reports etc.
Therein lies the dilemma, if "we" knew, it would be a licence to print money.
Example: a horse my mate owns, does not handle Canterbury, but has started three times there as odds on favourite and beaten every time.
If you "knew" a 10/1 shot had trouble in the last three races getting smothered by outside horses and getting his tongue over the bit, so they changed the bit only slightly which seemed to work in trackwork and today he's going to be in a wider barrier and kept for one late run down the outside, having run close fourths the last three times, surely his odds should be slashed in half.
My saying goes something like this:
"A horse's opening price plus overround is breakeven for what we know, it's final price plus overround is breakeven for what we don't know, if we knew what we didn't know beforehand, we'd all make an absolute killing" ;D
I'm more convinced this is true, as time goes on and markets unfold and contacts are made with various stables and owners.
It isn't what I know that will make a fortune, it's what I don't know, and until I know it, I'm left chipping away at a pot of gold.
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