23rd March 2009, 05:31 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,432
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70% strike rate for horses opening less than $1.55 in the UK and taking Betfair SP.
POT 20% pre commission.
Favourites in the UK win up to 40% of races because of the structure of racing.
Usually there are only one or two horses in a big field with a generally realistic chance of winning.
The POT arrives because the horses are rated much more accurately by the bookies, but Betfair markets mean that the price is forced up.
If you back every odds on favourite at Betfair SP you break even before commission.
Horses less than $1.55 get forced up, over $1.55 get forced down a little.
So you can back the real shorties and lay the higher shorties, as the openers are a very accurate rating in themselves.
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