12th November 2003, 08:38 PM
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 166
|
|
HI Testa,
It's actually the other way around...I suggested setting your market to different percentages based on the approach that you only price 4 or 5 runners. Id didn't recommend that you price the complete field to 90%.
If you are only pricing 4 or 5, then it is a mistake to set the market to 100%, that leaves 0% winning chance for the remaining runners which is wrong.
In a small field of 7-8 you may leave 5%-10% chance for the remaining runners so you should set the market for your 4 or 5 runners to about 90%.
In an average field of 12 runners you have about 7 horses left over so you should decided to leave 15% to 20% combined winning chance for those runners and price your 4 or 5 to 80%.
In effect your 5 runners add up to an 80% winning chance and the remaining 7 runners have a combined 20% winning chance.
Does that make sense?
Value is very much a subjective judgement, if you set prices they are only a guide. One way or another you need to have a feel for what is a fair v's unfair price for a horse you consider backing. The ability to make good decisions in this area and subsequently whether to bet or not bet is in my experience close to the most important skill in winning.
Hope that helps.
|