Thread: A couple of ??
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Old 12th April 2009, 08:44 PM
goty0405 goty0405 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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I've know a website that has a rather handy table with expected losing run statistics. For each strike-rate it gives you 4 different expected losings runs - one that has 75% chance of occuring (i.e very likely to have this number of outs), 50% chance (i.e 50:50), 25% and 1%.

I'ts really very handy. For example one of my systems has a 40% strike rate:

Strike Rate..........75%............50%............25%............1%
40
10
12
14
20

So from that I can see that I am a 75% chance of having a run of 10 losers. It's a 50:50 shot of having 12 losers. It's still 25% chance of having 14 losers and 1% that I could hit 20 losers in a row.

I dont think posting links is allowed on this forum so if you like you can tell me your strike rate(s) and I will post the relevant stats. Or I could email you the link if you'd prefer.
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