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4th May 2009, 07:19 AM
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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You may like to try this Benny.
.Target 10 runners & less.
This offers the best SR & lower runs of outs when it comes to 1st & 2nd Favs.
Any more than 10 & you will experience a number of consecutive runs of outs & that's bad for Dutching due to the low odds we are working with.
.Target 1st & 2nd Favs.
.No races with odds on Favs.
.Look at the 4th Fav.
-If its showing say 7.00
Bet to win 7.00 on the top 2 Favs.
-If its showing say 20.00
Bet to win 20.00 on the top 2 Favs.
20.00 is the max we go for even if the 4th fav is showing say 38.00.
We do not use a recovery.
The idea here is that we are assuming, that higher the price of the 4th fav, the greater the chance of the top 2 favs of getting up , therefore more should be bet on them to win.
I have found that it usually shows a profit most days if you know when to stop.
I try & target races where the Fav is around 3.00+
We are trying for a book value around 55% & less, any more & its a no bet race.
This means I let a number of races go.
I would only use Betfair for this exercise so as to lock in the price.
We are hoping for a 50%+ SR to show a profit & it usually does.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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