Hi Crash.

I was thinking along the lines of studying a horse's past performance relative to odds, maybe. Just to see if it is reliable when expected to win. Or something like that.

On pace I don't just go for the positioning as you say. If my horse is not highly favored, but has a good jockey on board I care a little less about the barrier and its position. But if my horse is is amongst the favorites, I'm thinking that if they are in a bad barrier for their pace (as you outlined) then that is a big disadvantage. Any jockey/s on another horse/s in the position of doing so tend to go out of their way to make life difficult for the favorite. The favorite finally getting free in the last 100 from a boxed position and lunging at the line to come fourth is cliche.

I haven't viewed the race, but I'm guessing from barrier one life was not made easy for the favorite Memorize (rated a mid fielder) yesterday at Flemington in the last.

Zupacool, who won at $11 but was at a much shorter price earlier, is mid paced but had barrier 17. Vella's only ride? But Payne, Yendall, and McDonald only had the one ride that meeting too.

The Steward's Report: Trainer A notified the Stewards this morning that Palace Prince will be riden on pace today and not in its usual nid paced position.

I hate when that happens and I miss it!

As for true run races, you know I have found something funny as I was looking through statistics (Note: there are many exceptions to this to make it no easy tool of betting): Horses that win at 1400m do well fresh at 1000m, and horses that do well at 1600M do well fresh at 1200M. Sectional times seem to be a more important factor in 1200s and 1600s. But not so with 1000s and 1400s. I'm sure the stats will call me a liar in the next 12 months. But that is what I have found in the past 18 months. Some horses never get beyond 1000M, but when they do its usually 1400 where they succeed. There are plenty of horses that have wins records like 1000(3) 1400(2). And nothing much else except a 1200M win in a maiden at Stony Creek. Wonder what that is about?