Ouch!! But be happy you got on the winner. I looked at it closely as well as a few other nags, then couldn't make up my mind and kept my wallet in my pocket. Sarem, from my POV had a lot of potential and I got a little paranoid and wondered why Williams jumped on it. He certainly didn't get the pick of the litter this meeting up until then. Definitely should have spent more time looking at the horse.

Straight after Might Power won the Caulfield Cup the argument started between my brother and I. He was firmly in the Doremius camp, and I was sticking with Might and Power. The arguments got heated. Oh yeah, I won and I plunged on it. But we were both kicking ourselves because the quinella paid well over $30. Even when you win you lose. LOL

Any how, I think I have solved the prob a bit with looking at whether the horse wins when it is supposed to win. Basically, does it win enough times when its under say $6. I backed both Ladies in Luck and Grand Destiny yesterday $10 ech to win. But now that I look at Grand Destiny's winning pattern I think I wasted $10. Most of the time it wins when its not supposed to and loses when everyone thinks its a chance.

As for pace, do you check what is inside a front runner that has an outside barrier? Does that make a difference? Say for instance a favoured frontrunner has barrier 11, but to offset that the next four or five horses inside it are slow or mid paced off the mark. Is that something that makes a difference? I don't really know that many angles when it comes to pace and I think I get it wrong sometimes. I don't know what influence pace hace in races with under 10 runners - things like that. I use Everyrace stats, generally.