Quote:
Originally Posted by Brendon
As for pace, do you check what is inside a front runner that has an outside barrier? Does that make a difference? Say for instance a favored frontrunner has barrier 11, but to offset that the next four or five horses inside it are slow or mid paced off the mark. Is that something that makes a difference? I don't really know that many angles when it comes to pace and I think I get it wrong sometimes. I don't know what influence pace hace in races with under 10 runners - things like that. I use Everyrace stats, generally.
|
Generally I don't like races with less than 10 runners as they are often just too sneaky. As I only bet on 1 to 4 races at any meeting [mostly Vic. and Brissy on Sat. and Vic. only the rest of the time], I usually ignore small fields.
"As for pace, do you check what is inside a front runner that has an outside barrier"?
Yes, I do check that sort of thing and it can make a big difference. Also, when I get a selection wrong I take a look at the winner and try to see why it won. Sometimes there is no rhyme nor reason to the win, but there usually is. Doing that from a pace perspective is a good way to understand pace more fully and how to benefit from it.
I also check times from the last start. Zupacool was the only horse in that race that ran time last start and that was the final clincher for me. Macedonlan [almost won] was a bit of a smokey with practically no exposed form and Guaci has a habit of getting up on some decent longshots he just 'happens' to be on. Just missed out with Macedonlan on Sat., but would have been a great place bet.
I think the main problem of checking pace and times in a horse's formline is the lack of easily available data and formline alone doesn't really say a lot. Very few punters pay for a good form service [there is a few out there] where all the needed data is on one site. Times, adjusted times for current distance, a horses pace, a steward report last start if there was an incident involving any runner etc, etc. I can see all the info I need [including the last 10 starts] for any race at any meeting 7 days a week and on the one page. For any half decent form student, these services not only pay for themselves but can also provide a winning edge.