
16th May 2009, 06:46 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 47
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This is an interest of mine also but moreso from a trading aspect. The things I've discovered so far is that just using the weight or money, or prices matched on a horse, is not the best. The reason is that there are lots of "mugs" out there and people who follow the crowd because they think it means someone knows something different. The things is everybody has different ideas on what factors mean what when picking winners so this is flawed...but it does sometimes create times when heaps of people get in and chase the price up/down (and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy - if enough punters get back a horse then the need outweighs the supply and the price starts firming, thus "proving" their original thoughts were right that everyone knows something about this horse)
The best thing to think about when analysing a market is to go against the crowd. Generally if a price is chased up/down a few ticks from the "expected" price it will generally correct itself. The hard part is knowing which are actual firmers (where need is always outstripping demand) and which are just bouncing around due to misinformed punters.
I like to use WOM as an indicator but that's all it is - an indicator. It's not a sole factor to look at. Some other things to look at are: - Price trends over time (10+ mins) - check out the BF graphs or record what prices are doing. If you see one that has firmed consistently then will more than likely continue on that trend
- Trends of other horses (especiall 2-4th favs) - if one horse is going to firm/drift then others generally have to compensate for this change
- Book% - very important when weighing these things up. Further form 100 the harder it becomes to pick why prices are changing
Well thats a start. Hope something in there helped!
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