I like the 3kg increase from the actual weights, or 2kg increase from the limit as the cutting off point.

When I looked closely at 4 races, I could see all kinds of variables (track cond, distance pref, etc..) sticking their beaks in and muddying the waters. But not too many won above the already discussed increase.

Lakonian had peaked against Shocking in the previous race. Three rides in a row with big class increase each time. 3kg was always going to drag it back to the field as it was difficult to see it improve on its previous race. Rock Home Late was also given 3. But there was plenty of room for improvement.

Maybe the lesson to learn is stay away (or lay) when there is a decent weight increase but with little room for improvement?