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Originally Posted by Steve M
Just an interesting observation of my own betting. In the past my betting was restricted to blacktype races only with moderate success.
In more recent times, not through specific design, I've noticed that few if any bets are on the better races. Generally nothing is blacktype, a lot of midweek. And with a higher level of success.
Surprises me a bit as I've always considered betting on the better quality races is the best way to go.
I don't mind saying that I'm backing horses at 10/1 or more the place. A gut feeling is that the better races are more likely to have a genuine favourite. The lesser class racing more likely to have a favourite that is under the odds thus giving you better odds should you be betting against the fave.
Upshot I think - is that punters could well benefit from analysing not just the horses they are selecting/backing but analysing the results in the various classes of racing to see what further refinement brings.
Just my thinking. Any other thoughts welcome :-)
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Steve, my main income for the last 6 years is from punting, (still holding a part time job 2 days, to please the better half), if someone could tell me which races are better propositions than others, I would pay them in gold!
The simple fact is, if horses have records, you can rate them, the more records the more accurate your ratings.
That is up to an extent, I would never go beyond the past 3 years usually only two. Horses age and change.
What type of race? I actually ignore all the "blacktype" races.
In country cups look for previous winners and most importantly LOCAL horses.
In my experience the day of week and the venue (where the race is held) is important!
Don't ask me why.
I have an extensive database, write my own software and still can't figure out why I can never win at certain venues like Perth or Rosehill and some others, or on Tuesdays or Fridays!
In other words I think the method you are using determines which classes of races suit you method.
Good luck