Originally Posted by Silver_and_sand

Just out of curiosity I had a quick look at three random Saturday's racing. What I found was that 50-60% of the winners had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start. That sounds great, but then I went through and counted up all the horses that had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start, which ended up being between 50-60%. With all due respect, isn't it a bit like saying that a very large % of all winners have four legs, and trying to build a system around it? Or did I randomly choose 3 bad Saturdays to look at? Please understand that I'm not questioning your statistic. I'm questioning whether it is a statistic worthy of incorporating into a selection method, given the similar ratios of winners to the field.