When it comes to price, whether we think 'it is the one' or not, price is very important. What we have to overcome is our average strike rate and average price to turn our SR into profit, otherwise 'feel good' winners can be a big drag if they are too short in price, regardless if they win or lose!

What we should be doing is working out our SR over the last 12mths. [average SR] if we have been keeping a record of our bets, which we should be doing of course.

If our strike win rate is 1 in 4 [your not a bad punter if your score is this] we should remember that 3 out of our 4 picks averaged out will fail regardless of how we 'feel' about a bet. Because a bet is a short price, it does not guarantee a better chance of a win [ approx. 70% of favorites lose] and says nothing about overs or unders. So any bet below 3/1 is a bad bet if our SR is 1 in 4, win or lose. Any bet above this is a good bet, win or lose when we take SR into account.

There is such a thing as a losing bet being a good bet if the price is right and is above our SR win price formula because we win 1 in 4 bets [example, but work out your own SR and the maths that suit].
Below the price that fits the SR is a spiral into loss and punter misery. It's basic maths after all. Isn't it?