18th June 2009, 08:53 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 47
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
If our strike win rate is 1 in 4 [your not a bad punter if your score is this] we should remember that 3 out of our 4 picks averaged out will fail regardless of how we 'feel' about a bet. Because a bet is a short price, it does not guarantee a better chance of a win [ approx. 70% of favorites lose] and says nothing about overs or unders. So any bet below 3/1 is a bad bet if our SR is 1 in 4, win or lose. Any bet above this is a good bet, win or lose when we take SR into account.
There is such a thing as a losing bet being a good bet if the price is right and is above our SR win price formula because we win 1 in 4 bets [example, but work out your own SR and the maths that suit].
Below the price that fits the SR is a spiral into loss and punter misery. It's basic maths after all. Isn't it?
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And the beauty of maths is that you can make numbers say almost anything. I think you're on the right track but I'd like to point out something - by eliminating selections based on a price after you've calculated strike rate is bad news. These two facets need to be looked at simultaneously.
Using your example:
25% Strike rate. Therefore you say you need 4.0 (3/1) on each bet for it to work. However if you elimante all those under that price you could be eliminating a fair share of winners, thus lowering the effective strike rate to be more like 15-20%, and thus making this now a bad system...
So if you have a method/system/whatever and you start thinking about applying upper or lower limits on prices then you need to re-calculate the strikerate for those criteria...otherwise the wrong maths could get you into a lot of trouble!
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