Originally Posted by goty0405

And the beauty of maths is that you can make numbers say almost anything. I think you're on the right track but I'd like to point out something - by eliminating selections based on a price after you've calculated strike rate is bad news. These two facets need to be looked at simultaneously.

Using your example:
25% Strike rate. Therefore you say you need 4.0 (3/1) on each bet for it to work. However if you elimante all those under that price you could be eliminating a fair share of winners, thus lowering the effective strike rate to be more like 15-20%, and thus making this now a bad system...

So if you have a method/system/whatever and you start thinking about applying upper or lower limits on prices then you need to re-calculate the strikerate for those criteria...otherwise the wrong maths could get you into a lot of trouble!