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Old 19th June 2009, 07:48 PM
Maurice Maurice is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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As my 1st post. The thread caught my eye.
Fav data is always subjective, they around win 30% all the time, that's even before we had computers......on an average of 11 starters, & you can give or take a starter.
If you find a niche where this up or down, you'll find that your average price has now lowered or gotten higher.....wet tracks have slightly smaller fields, thus price will be shorter, strike rate higher.
The sample submitted was Heavy metro, less than 2000 races, i got to say, it's hardly a sample, but then again, Waw .. it looks to be about 10 years of data.
Normally there are about 1500 races a month, & over a 1000 the TAB handles. think about it, 2000 races in 10 years, equates to 200 a year, 4 a races week... & metro races are less than even 25% of racing. and i am sure those dead tracks at carnival time was really slow ...
Such small data on the overall scheme means a very little..specially using favs, as these are after the fact. My $3.20, became 2.80, after they jumped. or v.v

Try the top prize money earner, the most consistent(win and/or place) strike rate up or down?, do horses with a win % of between 15-25%, do better on wet?

Also, think about metro tracks, best horses, best trainers... trainer thinks, i can scratch him, i already have him entered on Wednesday at Canterbury.
AT Lismore , Swan Hill or Coulandra , the trainer with only 4 horses often can't afford to scratch.

At a home track, or more so, if your a large trainer, you can afford to scratch, try traveling from whoop whoop to the city ,only to be caught in a flash storm, , what was good is now slow. i have 2 of my 4 horses with me, and the farrier and vet are expecting their accounts settled at the end of the month. - small samples are filled with such data

In the end, the most knowledge i took out of wet tracks, was noting the scratched horses on wet track raceday, why were they scratched? how did they perform when they eventually hit a wet track?

& its a luxery now, in the early 90's i was discovering on 386's. armed with a tiny 40m HD's a handful of disks and alarm clock, the computers cooked all night.

Hopefully I moved the dart board a bit.
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