Thought I check if the old wisdom about distance change still holds true?
It does with a slight variation between up and down in dist.

Distance change from last start = 0 POT = -28.7
Distance change from last start down > 0 and < 100 POT = -28.05
Distance change from last start down > 100 and < 200 POT = -28.88
Distance change from last start down > 200 and < 300 POT = -32.04
Distance change from last start down > 300 POT = -33.86
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Distance change from last start up > 100 POT = -30.55
Distance change from last start up > 100 and < 200 POT = -33.31
Distance change from last start up > 200 and < 300 POT = -34.61
Distance change from last start up > 300 POT = -31.65

So if you must bet, it's better if you bet if down in distance up to 100 M.
If up in distance between 100 to 200 m the loss is nearly 3%, big difference!

Good luck