I have had a rethink based on a bit of research of my own figures. From my database - although not as big as some boast here - the value goes right out of wet tracks for me.

So what if the stats show the same number of favorites winning. Post after post after post here says the favorites are poison to long term profit: the tote squeezes the goodness out of their price. Maybe moreso on wet days. My results show it.

You can't look at the ratio of faves getting up in the wet to justify betting on soggy tracks. Unless you are making a profit on backing faves. And nobody here is. The over-riding philosophy here seems to be looking for false favorites.

My selection process makes more money out of dry tracks. I usually stay away from wet tracks. But I have selected one or two good winners over the last season. I think I have just been lucky and that clouded my thinking. When I ran my selection process thru 25 wet tracks days (about 200 races) my POT was well down. 20% less winners, but when I did win the av price was lower. Maybe it is just easier for the bookmakers to identify the potential winners. Or just because the fields are smaller, or because so many scratchings upset my system. Whatever, it goes down. I tried to tweak a bit here and there to accomodate for the conditions, but it seemed that it was the short odds on reasonably favored horses that got me.

(P.S. my selection criteria has been honed over 3 years, so I figure 200 wet day races was enough to see if there was a pattern)