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Old 24th June 2009, 10:23 AM
Tonymess Tonymess is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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There are two ways I can look at my disastrous 0-6 start to the event:

1) I'm travelling like a shin sore 2yo who has missed the start 6 lengths and am no chance of winning (glass half empty), or

2) With 6 straight losses it's about time I turned the corner (glass half full).

If you were on Dimitrov at Betfair you've done your cash after he wins the 1st set, then drops 9 straight games and retires, with various other bookies at least you get a refund as the match wasn't completed. Our other selection didn't raise a yelp.

Onto Round 2 tonight - the prices are my ratings based on their performances on this surface - market set to 100% and the shortest I rate a player is 1.03 (conversely the longest is 33.33)

GICQUEL, MARC 2.27 vs SEPPI, ANDREAS 1.79 - Seppi played very well against Blake and if he repeats that effort he should win this, not a lot of value around and as he's not the most consistent animal going around I'll skip this match - (note his team of Bolelli/Seppi retired in the doubles).

ANDREEV, IGOR 1.93 vs SPADEA, VINCENT 2.08 - Andreev a lot shorter than my ratings on opening prices and note that my ratings are based on previous form on this surface and do not take into account the fact that Spadea's had very ordinary lead up form in Challenger events on hard and clay courts. Could not back either of these guys a) because Andreev's no value and b) because Spadea will probably return to his ordinary self in this round (beating Capdeville in R1 here doesn't mean a lot)

LLODRA, MICHAEL 7.04 vs HAAS, TOMMY 1.17 - Haas 27 wins and 11 losses against lefties (5-0 on grass) and is currently 1.32 at Betfair which is value according to my ratings. Has been a shadow of his former self so even though the price is tempting I'll leave this alone - reckon he'll make it a clean 6 wins and zero losses to lefties on grass.

Cilic, Marin 1.66 vs Querrey, Samuel 2.52 - Early prices are very similar to mine, I do expect Cilic's serve to be too much for Querrey.

ROBREDO, TOMMY 1.87 vs KOUBEK, STEFAN 2.14 - Robredo 44 wins and 17 losses against lefties but definitely not a bloke I can back on grass, watched him play against Baghdatis last week and he was ordinary - I opposed him in Round 1 and although I mark him favourite here I can't fall into him at the ridiculous 1.21 currently on offer - cannot back the bloke who has had back problems especially after he's backing up from a five setter in R1, although I wouldn't be surprised to see him take at least a set.

SCHUTTLER, RAINER 1.11 vs SELA, DUDI 10.09 - Sela a bloke I can't get right, opposed him in Round 1 and now up against a semi finalist from last year - easy win to the German I'm tipping

FISH, MARDY 1.75 vs TIPSAREVIC, JANKO 2.33 - My prices roughly the same as the bookies and probably a match that will be tight. Close to a toss of the coin.

Djokovic, Novak 1.19 vs GRUEL, SIMON 6.33 - Djokovic trading at very short prices, should win but I'm not risking money for bank interest.

VLIEGEN, KRISTOF 3.5 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.4 - Vliegen 28 and 20 against lefties but 0-5 on grass so probably should move Verdasco's price in a little, he's currently around the 1.17 mark at Betfair which indicates an easy win but he's not any value.

MONTANES, ALBERT 5.31 vs CANAS, GUILLERMO 1.23 - Canas at 1.64 at Betfair but not your most consistent of beasts - cannot fall into the Jellyfish Montanes on this surface and I did punt against him in R1 (to my dismay) Canas a R1 loser in French open qualies and not been seen since, Montanes a R1 loser at the same event and same deal - hasn't played since.

Darcis, Steve 2.89 vs KARLOVIC, IVO 1.53 - The 7 foot tall Karlovic way way shorter in opening prices and the only punting I do on him is every set to go to a tie-breaker (has played 513 breakers in 538 matches at all levels on the tour - 311 breakers from 292 matches on the main tour) - I'll be on Karlovic to win each of the 1st three sets 7-6

TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.15 vs BOLELLI, SIMONE 7.56 - Tsonga should breeze through this (Seppi/Bolelli retiring hurt in the doubles - dunno which one it was but guessing Bolelli as he'd had the hard 5 setter in Round 1, but that's a guess and I don't punt on guesses)

Granollers, Marcel 6.57 vs SODERLING, ROBIN 1.18 - Soderling wins full stop.

BECK, KAROL 1.6 vs ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 2.66 - Value is definitely with Beck who went through qualies (beat Im and Franco Ferreiro before losing to Greul and making the draw as a lucky loser where he beat Lopez 10-8 in the fifth in three hours and 45 mins). Almagro taking 2 minutes shy of four hours to beat Monaco 8-6 in the fifth in his R1 encounter. This match could be decided by the player who has been able to better recover from their R1 exertions.

KOHLSCHREIBER, PHILIPP 1.03 vs MINAR, IVO 33.33 - German wins easily but he's a bloke you do not punt - I'll not explain why here but just don't touch him.

GARCIA-LOPEZ, GUILLERMO 33.33 vs FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 - Those people who have backed the "will Federer drop a set" option will have an easy ride for their money here - doesn't always do it easy in early rounds but cannot see Garcia-Lopez having any weapons to make any in roads.

I'll probably back Beck for a small amount, Karlovic to win sets in breakers and maybe Koubek to take a set (ie. either lay Robredo to win 3-0 at Betfair or back Koubek to win the match and Robredo to win it 3-1 and 3-2).

Not an inspiring night really - will be pumped after the Canetoads beat the Cockroaches on their own soil though - Inglis for 1st try.

Cheers

Tony
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