
27th June 2009, 12:55 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I believe one will see a difference in what sort of favs win depending on price range & field size.
Example
All Favs approx 30%W Plc 62%
This includes odds-on horses which on their own win 55% of their races
Favs 1-7 runners 40%W SR
Favs priced $2.80+ = 24%SR
This is the value range one likes to hit upon.
Any less & it starts to get really hard to pull a profit.
Favs priced $4.70-6.00 18% W SR
These can make for good laying possibilities.
Favs in 9 runners & less 70%Plc SR
Delete females that are competing against males & are Fav 75%
If one were to back all Favs in races 1-7 priced 2.90 & less & deleting the competing females , it shows a slight profit.
Any more & it shows a loss.
The Fav will run 2nd or 3rd 32% of the time .
They percentage between the the two varies slightly month to month & year to year.
Favs in Maiden events who are having their first career start have the highest W% of all ... weird.
Check out the interactive UK site by Adrian Massey (Google) where one can crunch some ideas.
Maybe try & break up ones research over field sizes.
1-7
8-9
10-12
13-15
16-20
Its all very well to get a SR on a fav.
Its another to get the price you fell you need to back it.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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