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Old 28th June 2009, 07:07 PM
Tonymess Tonymess is offline
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Hope a fwew of you jumped onto Hewitt over Del Potro and Ferrero over Gonzo at the outsider prices.

Today we have a rest day but I'll post my thoughts early. Funny how they build a roof at Wimbledon and probably won't get to use it.

Wimbledon Round 4

STEPANEK, RADEK 3.79 vs HEWITT, LLEYTON 1.36 - H2H is 2-0 to Hewitt but it goes back to 2003 when he won them both and one by retirement. Stepanek on court for 3 hours and 43 minutes in defeating Ferrer so a back up may be hard (the extra day's rest they get in Slams does help a little though), Hewitt taking 2 hours and 27 minutes to beat Petzschner in 3. I expect Dicky Knee to make the Quarters where he should meet Roddick.

BERDYCH, TOMAS 2.84 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.54 - H2H is 2 wins a piece and my prices similar to opening ones. Berdych too inconsistent for my liking (and that's talking punting liking) so I'll stear clear of this.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.24 vs WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 5.17 - H2H is 4-3 in Murray's favour, 2 of Warinka's wins coming on dirt and the other back in 2006. Murray a lot shorter than my pricing but I still expect him to be too good - issue is the external pressure being put on him from here on in. STill expect him to make the last 8 though.

Simon, Gilles 2.52 vs FERRERO, JUAN 1.66 - Ferrero won their only meeting in a clay qualifying match in Hamburg. Amazingly people are now jumping on Ferrero and he's been marked the favourite on opening prices and similar to mine. He's backing up from a tough 5 setter against Gonzo that took 3 hours whereas Simon was a ss winner over Hanescu, in 1 hour and 27 minutes. Simon a Quarter Finalist at the Aussie Open earlier this year so can go this deep in events, as we know Ferrero a Slam winner a Finalist two other times a semi finalist three times and quarters twice before so the experience may tip things in his favour. No value to be found though so not worth punting.

HAAS, TOMMY 1.43 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 3.31 - Andreev a winner in their only meeting in Davis Cup on dirt, Haas not getting any younger but has three slam quarter finalst and three semi finals to his name - Andreev with just the one Quarter Final (Roland Garros in 2007). No value in this match either.

SELA, DUDI 7.42 vs Djokovic, Novak 1.16 - Djokovic wining their only match up in straight sets in Davis Cup in 2006. As I've said all event I can't get Sela right but really he should be packing his bags after this match, this is the furthest he's been in a Slam and he's never even won an ATP Trophy (has a few - 13 in total - Challenger and Future events to his name all on hard courts).

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 3.16 vs KARLOVIC, IVO 1.46 - H2H is 2-1 in Karlovic's favour but their only meeting on grass was a win to the Croatian giant, 75,67(4),76(8), so nothing between them. All up he's 36 wins and 31 losses to lefties (includes those three against Verdasco). There is a little bit of value about Karlovic but be warned he's made the fourth round once before in 34 Slams (not counting this one) and VErdasco's made a Semi (Aussie Open earlier this year) and the fourth round 7 times from 30 attempts.

FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 vs SODERLING, ROBIN 33.33 - They're talking this up as the French open Final rematch - nothing to talk up in my opinion the French Open in 2004 was the last time Federer didn't make the Semi of a Slam.

Not a lot of value on offer and I expect all the usual suspects to win - and they are all marked as favourites with the books. Will not be much different from here on in, especially if they all do win as I'd pick Roddick over Hewitt, Murray over Ferrero, Djokovic over Haas and Federer over Karlovic. Then Murray over Roddick and Federer over Djokovic with Fed to win the Final. Could be more interesting though if an upset or two can occur along the way.

Cheers

Tony
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